This weekend a number of mainstream media outlets widely reported the results of a FOX News poll which found that 71 percent of Americans support using U.S. forces to disarm Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

This really struck me, because that is a HUGE number -- especially once you look at the actual results and see that nine percent of respondents abstained. I had to dig further.

What I found: Most likely the number is inflated by a shady poll question. (FOX News did have the integrity to include its polling method and questions even if the reporting of the results was less than professional.)

Here is the exact question asked of survey respondents: "Do you support or oppose U.S. military action to disarm Iraq and remove Iraqi President Saddam Hussein? Is that (support/oppose) strongly or just somewhat?"

The poll designers didn't actually ask, "with or without UN support?" Not even a follow up question! At this stage of the game, that is flat out irresponsible journalism.

Interesting comparison:

A bipartisan team of political pollsters who conducted a survey with a similar sample (1,005 registered voters, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and Public Opinion Strategies) for the Vietnam Veterans of America Foundation ^{PDF, p.11} found that 47 percent of voters say the U.S. should remove Saddam Hussein by force, even without the support of the United Nations Security Council. Thirty-seven percent support this effort only with the full backing of the UNSC. (And 13 percent are against any military action in Iraq, even with UNSC support.)

To be fair, FOX News never came out and said, '71 percent of Americans support U.S. military action no matter what,' however the network's reporting of the results -- on air in particular -- didn't make it clear that this is not the case. I knew to be suspicious. Does the average viewer?

In other, less reputable outlets the integrity of the statistics went straight out the window. Exhibit A: e.thePeople sold it with the lie right in the headline.

And another thing...

On the issue of proper polling techniques, the FOX News survey also failed. The Washington Post, New York Post and Contra Costa Times all cite the poll's finding that 71 percent of respondents agree with the statement, "It's time to get it over with in Iraq and stop the uncertainty." While it may be significant that the number has shot up from 56 percent a month ago, as far as the accuracy of any of those numbers, let's look at how that question is couched in the survey:

Q.11 It is estimated that the war in Iraq will cost each U.S. taxpayer about 300 dollars. Do you think it is worth 300 dollars per taxpayer to disarm Iraq and remove Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from power?

Q.12 Which do you think is more likely -- Iraq is completely complying with the existing U.N. resolutions and disarming, or Iraq is lying to the United Nations and continuing to keep and build weapons?

Q.13 Do you agree or disagree with the statement, "It's time to get it over with in Iraq and stop the uncertainty"?

Let's review. Leading up to this fantastic stat that 71 percent of Americans want to just "get it over with in Iraq," the pollsters reminded respondents: Here's how much this is costing you. Oh yeah, and is Iraq completely complying? (My, what a shocking result.)

Not to mention, the statement itself is vague and does not address whether respondents think it's 'time to get it over with' because they believe that or because they believe war is inevitable at this point and are worried about that $300 turning into $500 or $2000.

The timing of the sudden increase in public support for 'getting it over with' seems to me to be a pretty clear indication that many have simply accepted what they see as inevitable and want to put it behind them. It would be nice if the media didn't look at it with such dumb wonderment as though finally the American people have spoken.

The lesson here: Some survey researchers, especially political pollsters, will continue to produce questionable data, purposefully or not. The burden falls upon the writers, the editors and the copy desks to use their critical thinking skills. And sometimes the big story is that everyone else is reporting a sketchy picture of reality.

March 16, 2003